Who is Dean Phillips? (BTN #27)
Biden Tracking Newsletter #27: Day 1007 (10/23) through Day 1013 (10/29)
Dean Phillips speaking to a crowd after officially filing to run in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. (Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune)
This is the twenty-seventh edition of the Biden Tracking newsletter. Last week, I told you that little-known House Representative Dean Phillips, from Minnesota, was planning on challenging President Biden in the Democratic primary. This week, he made those plans official. So this week, the newsletter will focus on Phillips and what we know about his policy views. Also in the newsletter this week: President Biden’s approval rating among Democrats hit a record low, President Biden announced he won’t “officially” run in the New Hampshire primary, and some more news about the War between Israel and Hamas. It is Tuesday, October 24th, 2023, day 1015 of the Biden presidency.
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Dean Phillips’s main argument is simple: Biden is simply too old to be President. Overwhelmingly, he argues, Democrats want a younger and fresher voice, as their nominee. On that point, Phillips is right. But is Phillips truly a younger and fresher voice?
First, some background: Phillips is far from working class. His step-father was the heir to the Phillips Distilling Company and as a child, Phillips went to an elite private school in Minneapolis. The same year Phillips completed his MBA at the University of Minnesota, he became the president and CEO of the Phillips Distilling Company.
Phillips’s website lacks policy (but does offer an easy way to donate $3,300 to his campaign)! But, voting in the House, Phillips has been a strong supporter of President Biden. According to FiveThirtyEight, between 2021 and 2022, Phillips voted for bills supported by President Biden 100% of the time. But Phillips’s campaign manager is Steve Schmidt. Schmidt is a long-time Republican operative; he was a counselor to Vice President Dick Cheney and helped run George W. Bush's re-election campaign in 2004. Schmidt was also a founding member of The Lincoln Project. However, in December 2020, Schmidt joined the Democratic party.
Speaking to reporters, Phillips only had one mention of policy, about the Southern Border. He said “Having been to the southern border twice, it is not secure, it is inhumane, It is not fair to those who are seeking refuge. It is not fair to our border patrol agents, who have shown extraordinary mercy and humanity in ways that I wish more Americans saw. And they’ve been demeaned by Democrats.” He went on to say “Why do we not invest in the very countries from which migrants are coming because they’re persecuted, feel unsafe, or have no opportunity” and “Why don’t we use American resources upstream to invest in those countries, so people have a safe place, they have opportunity, they have shelter and do not need to pour across our border.” In theory, this is a policy opinion that makes some sense; But it doesn’t seem to go with his rhetoric about securing the border.
It will be interesting to see a more in-depth look at Dean Phillip’s policy positions. But based on what we know so far, it seems unlikely that he represents are progressive departure from President Biden. Arguably, if he was even slightly to the left of Biden, Phillips might have a serious shot at beating him. But if his only true difference is age, he’s running a pointless campaign.
Monday, October 23rd (Day 1007)
DHS proposes changes to H-1B work visas
On Monday the Department of Homeland Security rolled out a series of proposals to change how work visas are granted and what rights they convey to foreign nationals. The H-1B visa is often granted to graduates of U.S. universities, and for many, it serves as a bridge between college or graduate school in the United States and permanent residency or naturalization. But, as part of the proposal, the DHS has changed language that would mean an applicant’s job needs to be “directly related” to their studies, language that was first proposed by the Trump Administration. Immigration activists say this will make the visa significantly harder for applicants to get. However, there are some good changes as part of the proposal. Under the new system, each applicant would count once for the lottery system, regardless of how many applications they filed, reducing risk. The proposal would also codify a way for entrepreneurs to self-sponsor, whereas only U.S.-based companies can sponsor applicants now. Finally, it would require U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the agency that grants work permits, to defer to its prior decisions, meaning that renewals for people with unchanged underlying circumstances would be virtually guaranteed.
Tuesday, October 24th (Day 1008)
In protest, President Biden will not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot
On Tuesday, President Biden’s re-election campaign said that President Biden won't file to have his name appear on the 2024 New Hampshire Democratic primary ballot. In a letter to the New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair the campaign wrote "While the president wishes to participate in the primary, he is obligated to comply" with party rules. Biden last year urged the Democratic National Committee to change the order of the 2024 primary, replacing Iowa's leadoff caucus with the South Carolina primary. Many noted that President Biden did far better in South Carolina than in Iowa in 2020. New Hampshire has a state law that mandates hosting the nation's first primary and Democratic officials in New Hampshire won’t break that law. The DNC has warned that opposing their schedule would lead to sanctions, including New Hampshire potentially losing delegates to the 2024 Democratic convention in Chicago. President Biden will likely try to use a write-in campaign to try to win the primary, which has been done before successfully. In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson didn't file for New Hampshire's primary and still won via write-in, though funny enough. Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy's strong second-place finish in the state helped push Johnson to announce mere weeks later that he wouldn't seek reelection. A strong showing by Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson in New Hampshire could help propel them to a national spotlight or convince President Biden to drop out.
On Tuesday, President Biden and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman discussed efforts to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from widening. Despite numerous human rights issues by Saudi Arabia, the United States continues to work with the Saudis on diplomatic issues. Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the attacks by Hamas were in part motivated to disrupt a potential normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. A normalization agreement between the two sides, would likely not involve Palestinian statehood.
Thursday, October 26th (Day 1010)
Court delays oil and gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico
On Thursday, a federal appeals court delayed a sale of federal Gulf of Mexico oil and gas leases that had been scheduled for November 8th. In August, the Biden administration reduced the area available for leases from 73 million acres to 67 million acres as part of a plan to protect the endangered Rice's whale. Oil and gas companies sued and won initially in court but on Thursday the Biden Administration won an indefinite postponement of the sale. On November 13th, the case will be argued in the Federal appeals court.
President Biden’s approval rating among Democrats hits a new low
A new Gallup poll released on Thursday revealed that President Biden’s approval rating among Democrats was at 75%, the lowest during his presidency. His approval rating among Democrats is down 11 points from September 2023. Gallup hypothesizes that President Biden’s outspoken support of Israel could have something to do with the significant drop. Early this year, Gallup found that for the first time in the U.S., Democrats’ sympathies for the Palestinians outpaced those for the Israelis. Nationally, according to Gallup, President Biden’s approval rating is at 37%, tied for the lowest point in his Presidency.
Friday, October 27th (Day 1011)
Iran Proxies and U.S. forces fire air strikes at each other
On Friday, United States fighter jets bombed facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in Syria. Afterward, Iran’s proxies fired a drone at United States troops in Syria that was shot down by U.S. forces. Drone strikes against U.S. troops in the Middle East have become more frequent, especially after the beginning of the War between Israel and Hamas. The U.S.’s targets were arms and ammunition storage buildings that supplied the Iran-backed militias. In a statement, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said “The United States does not seek conflict and has no intention nor desire to engage in further hostilities, but these Iranian-backed attacks against U.S. forces are unacceptable and must stop.” U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East are, at least in the mind of the President, supposed to deter attacks. Biden administration officials say deterrence efforts after strikes against troops in March led to an uneasy six-month hiatus of attacks. But the U.S. strategy of long-term military-led deterrence has been tried and failed many times before, and there is no reason to believe this situation is any different.
Other News: