Just Two Weeks In, Biden's Campaign Struggles
Biden Tracking Newsletter #19 Day 825 (4/24) through Day 837 (5/7)
A screenshot from President Biden’s campaign announcement video
This is the nineteenth edition of the Biden Tracking newsletter. This week we will focus on early struggles from President Biden’s 2024 presidential campaign. Other topics include new Biden Administration border policies post Title 42, Biden sending 1500 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, and Neera Tanden being named the new Domestic Policy chief. Today is Monday, May 8th, 2023, day 838 of the Biden Presidency.
If you’re interested in learning more about topics in my newsletter, everything underlined contains a link to a news article that goes into further detail on the subject.
When President Biden officially launched his 2024 presidential campaign on April 25th, the hope was that Democrats would rally around the incumbent President. The Democratic establishment quickly fell in line, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi, and Gavin Newsom have all endorsed the President. Even “progressive” congresspeople, like Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar, Pramila Jayapal, and Bernie Sanders have endorsed Biden. But poll after poll since the announcement seems to suggest that this is not working for Democratic voters. A Fox News poll and an Emerson College poll taken right after his campaign announcement found that almost 30% of Dems would support Robert Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson over Biden. A Newsweek poll a week after the announcement found that 79% of people who voted for Biden in 2020 wanted the Democratic Party to hold televised primary debates. A recent ABC News poll found that Biden’s approval rating was at a new low, 36%!, and that 58% of “lean Dems” thought the Democratic Party should nominate someone else.
Yes, it is true that Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr. don’t have a realistic shot to win the Democratic primary. They both struggle to get mainstream support and there is reason to suggest that Robert Kennedy’s early poll success might solely be because of the Kennedy name. But the Democratic party establishment has been clear that it is Biden or bust. They have not allowed a serious primary challenger to run, and the Democratic party won’t support debates between Williamson, Kennedy, and Biden. The establishment would rather embrace a historically unpopular President than allow a challenger that *might* push the party left. Hillary Clinton was historically unpopular in 2016 and young people didn’t turn out to vote. Unless President Biden makes major amends with younger Americans (federal marijuana legalization might help), there is no reason to believe he is going to have an easy 2024 campaign.
The only sort of establishment member who might seek a Democratic Presidential bid is Joe Manchin. Let’s be clear, Manchin would likely be an even worse President than Biden. He is an enemy to progressive causes. But his running for President *might* open the door to a more mainstream progressive candidate announcing a run. (Think an Elizabeth Warren type, a social democrat.) It also *might* force Biden to move left to differentiate himself from Manchin. However both of these are long shots, Manchin probably won’t run. And if he does, there is still every reason to believe that it would be bad for progressive causes. But you have to have hope, right?
Anyway on to some other news from the last two weeks…
Thursday, April 27th (Day 828)
President Biden Announces New Immigration Policies Post Title 42
On Thursday, President Biden announced some of his new immigration plans following the end of Title 42. Title 42 is a Trump-era pandemic policy that allows the government to expel migrants without an Asylum hearing. Despite its pandemic basis, it has become the Biden Administration’s primary way to expel migrants. But when the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency ends on May 11th, Title 42 will end with it. The plans include new migrant processing centers in Latin America, an increase in deportations, and expanded legal migration pathways. The new migrant processing centers, which will be located in countries like Colombia and Guatemala will allow asylum seekers to be vetted for Asylum eligibility or to be resettled in Canada or Spain, which have agreed to take referrals from the centers. The hubs are expected to serve between 5,000 and 6,000 migrants each month. The Biden Administration will also expand a family reunification program, which will allow citizens of Colombia, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras to come to the U.S. once they have approved immigrant visa requests from family members who are U.S. citizens or permanent residents. The Biden Administration is also continuing to move forward with a Trump-era rule, which has been discussed at length in previous newsletters, that would disqualify migrants from asylum if they enter the country illegally after failing to seek humanitarian protection in a third country they transited through on their way to the U.S. The Biden Administration will also continue to use the CPB One app as the primary way Asylum seekers can get interviews at the border.
Monday, May 1st (Day 831)
U.S. Renews Temporary Legal Status for Afghan Evacuees
On Monday, the DHS announced they would allow Afghan evacuees to renew their temporary work permits and protections from deportation. 77,000 Afghan evacuees were admitted under the program during the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. The Biden Administration used a similar program to help Ukraine evacuees. Despite the successes, the Biden Administration has been criticized for not expanding the program to the same extent for Latin American Asylum seekers. In 2022, the Biden Administration did expand the program to allow Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to receive temporary protections in the United States if they have an American financial sponsor.
Tuesday, May 2nd (Day 832)
President Biden Plans to Send 1500 U.S. Troops to the U.S.-Mexico Border
On Tuesday, the Biden Administration announced plans to send 1,500 active-duty troops to the US-Mexico border in anticipation of an influx of migrants following the end of Title 42. Currently, there are approximately 2,500 National Guard troops on the border. In a statement, a U.S. official said “These 1,500 military personnel will fill critical capability gaps, such as ground-based detection and monitoring, data entry, and warehouse support, until CBP can address these needs through contracted support. They will not be doing any law enforcement work.” In early 2019, President Trump made a similar, widely criticized move when he sent 3,000 active-duty troops to the border to address a “surge”. Biden’s move faced less criticism, but Senator Menendez of New Jersey did say “The Biden Administration’s militarization of the border is unacceptable. There is already a humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere, and deploying military personnel only signals that migrants are a threat that requires our nation’s troops to contain. Nothing could be further from the truth.”
Thursday, May 4th (Day 834)
Colombia Has Temporarily Blocked ICE Deportation Flights
The final immigration story this week, I promise. On Thursday, Colombia said they had temporarily blocked ICE and CPB deportation flights because of the way CBP and ICE treat migrants. According to Adam Isacson from the advocacy organization Washington Office of Latin America, ICE and CPB officers have shackled migrants, not allowed them to use the bathroom or sleep, and kept young children alone in cells. The Biden Administration, ICE, and CPB did not comment on the block.
Friday, May 5th (Day 835)
President Biden Names Neera Tanden New Domestic Policy Chief
On Friday, President Biden officially announced that Neera Tanden would replace Susan Rice as the head of the Domestic Policy Council. Stef Feldman, a senior adviser to Rice and a longtime Biden aide, will replace Tanden as staff secretary. Susan Rice is well known for being fairly right-wing, especially on immigration. She has successfully pushed the Biden Administration to reinstitute Trump-era immigration policies, like the new Asylum transit ban. Tanden is well known among online circles, but not in a good way. On Twitter, she has argued staunchly against so-called “Bernie-bros,” and off Twitter has been known to be fairly centrist. Even still, she will be a noticeable improvement over the arguably far-right Susan Rice.
Other News:
Dara Lind in Immigration Impact, wrote a great article about what happens at the end of Title 42.
President Biden is proposing a 30% climate change tax on cryptocurrency mining
President Biden is nominating Sean Patrick Maloney as ambassador to OCED in Paris.
John Oliver had a great video explainer about Biden’s failures at the border for Last Week Tonight. (Video on YouTube.)