Biden's Been Busy (BTN #28)
Biden Tracking Newsletter #28: Day 1014 (10/30) through Day 1027 (11/12)
This is the twenty-eighth edition of the Biden Tracking newsletter. It has been a busy two weeks for President Biden and Biden-related news. We got plenty of news about Israel, plus Biden’s new narrow student debt relief plan and more drone strikes in Syria. It is Monday, October 13th, 2023, day 1028 of the Biden presidency.
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Friday, November 10 (Day )
Jill Stein is running for President.
On Friday, Jill Stein announced she is running for President, again, as a member of the Green Party. Stein was the campaign manager for Cornel West’s presidential bid but left after West became an Independent. It’s not entirely clear why she’s running for President but, in my opinion, it likely has something to do with West leaving the Green Party. The Green Party’s only source of national relevance is presidential campaigns and so without another notable candidate, Stein stepped in. I don’t think this has a major effect on President Biden though. Are there any people who would have voted for Biden, with West already in the race, and are now going to vote for Stein? West has much more national appeal than Stein and can pull in Black voters especially, in ways Stein could never do. It’s hard to imagine both Stein and West will be running for President by election day, but who knows with these long-shot campaigns?
Beto O’Rourke complains about Biden’s immigration policies
Beto O’Rourke on Friday became the latest Democrat to complain about Biden’s immigration policies. In a panel convened by the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, O’Rourke said despite Biden being successful “on some counts” and a “night-and-day” difference in rhetoric compared to Trump, the president is not living up to his 2020 immigration promises. O’Rourke specifically called out President Biden’s “carrot-and-stick” approach, which attempts to open new pathways to legally enter the country while making it more difficult to claim asylum without prior authorization. O’Rourke called the policy an “asylum ban.” O’Rourke also argued that Biden could move faster on granting parole and work authorization to new immigrant arrivals.
Thursday, November 9 (Day )
Dean Phillips calls Democratic primary rigged, apologizes to Bernie Sanders
Not Biden related per se, but interesting nonetheless, on Thursday Presidential candidate Dean Phillips apologized in a Tweet to Senator Bernie Sanders for not believing that the Democratic primary was rigged. In the Tweet, Phillps wrote “I had long dismissed his complaints about the rigged Democratic Party primary system. But you know what? He was right. And I apologize, Bernie." In response, Senator Sanders told Business Insider “He's changed his views now that he's a candidate? I'm not getting involved in this."
Wednesday, November 8 (Day )
The United States conducts more air strikes in Syria
On Wednesday the United States military conducted more airstrikes on facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in eastern Syria. Since last month, when the United States launched its first round of “retaliatory” strikes, there have been at least 22 new rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria. The first round of strikes were meant to deter Iran but, as I hypothesized in my last newsletter, they were unsuccessful. In fact, according to Pentagon officials, the latest attacks by Iran have become even more dangerous. Iran-backed militias have packed even larger loads of explosives, more than 80 pounds, onto drones launched at American bases, according to the Pentagon. Earlier in the day, a U.S. military surveillance drone was shot down over the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. According to the Pentagon, there have been at least 41 attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq since October 17th and at least 46 U.S. service members have been injured, 25 of whom had suffered traumatic brain injuries. The United States has 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria.
26 Senate Democrats send letter to Biden, seeking assurances on Israel
On Wednesday twenty-four Senate Democrats, plus independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders, sent a letter to the Biden Administration asking President Biden to to defend his request for $14.3 billion in emergency military assistance for Israel. They sought assurances that Israel had a viable plan for defeating Hamas and that the United States would not be funding actions that violate international and U.S. laws. Specifically, they wrote “We believe the United States should immediately provide Israel with the funding it needs to replenish its defensive systems, including Iron Dome and other air defense capabilities. But to better understand the efficacy of U.S. funding that supports Israel’s operations inside Gaza, we respectfully ask your team to provide us with information relative to these two clear U.S. priorities: supporting an Israeli strategy that will effectively degrade and defeat the threat from Hamas and taking all possible measures to protect civilians in Gaza.”
The effort is led by Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland but includes more moderate senators like Angus King. However, the senators did not threaten to withhold their support for aid to Israel. The effort represents the first mainstream challenge to the Biden Administration’s policy of standing, unequivocally, with Israel.
The Biden Administration complains about the media
On Wednesday President Biden’s reelection campaign sent a memo to news outlets complaining that there’s a disparity in the way the media has covered polling. Biden-Harris 2024 communications director Michael Tyler said in the memo “Despite the ‘hair-on-fire’, ‘sky-is-falling’ tone we’ve seen from media coverage over the last few days, political predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Gallup predicted an eight-point loss for President Obama only for him to win handedly a year later. A year out from the 2022 midterms, every major outlet similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden.” He later added “Another critical point being overlooked: no president has ever run for reelection with a record of accomplishment that is as popular as the one President Biden will be running on over the next year.” What the Biden Administration is missing is that polling is supposed to represent the current present, not the future. If election day were today, polling suggests that President Biden would likely lose. Complaining about numbers, or platitudes about accomplishments, won’t change that reality. What will change that reality is progressive policy that appeals to younger people who, see the story below, increasingly do not support President Biden. Marijuana legalization, wide-scale student debt relief, and support for a Ceasefire in Israel are policies that young people support that President Biden has not delivered.
Sunday, November 5 (Day )
Trump leads Biden in 5 critical battleground states, new poll finds.
A new New York Times/Siena College poll, released on Sunday, reveals that President Biden is trailing former President Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election. Biden trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, though Biden does have a lead in Wisconsin. Though when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added, Biden fares slightly better, and ties in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Biden and Trump’s struggles with young voters are especially present, RFK Jr. receives a plurality of the 18-29 electorate in battleground states (34% RFK, 30% Biden, 29% Trump).
Friday, November 3rd (Day )
The United States is flying unarmed MQ-9 Reaper drones above Gaza to search for hostages.
On Friday a U.S. official revealed that the U.S. military is flying unarmed MQ-9 Reaper drones above Gaza to assist with efforts to locate the more than 240 people taken hostage by Hamas. Reaper drones are mainly known for their high-resolution video and infrared cameras. They also carry a variety of other sensors that can provide signals intelligence involving cellphones and other communications devices and can hold and fire up to eight laser-guided Hellfire missiles that can be used on hostile targets as was done in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is not clear what specifically is being captured by these drones. But, it is another example of the unprecedented support that the United States is providing for Israel.
Biden Administration announces $425 million military aid package for Ukraine
On Friday the Biden Administration announced a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine. About $300 million will go to laser-guided munitions to shoot down Russian drones. The funds for those munitions come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows the Biden administration to buy weapons from industry rather than pull from U.S. weapons stocks. The remainder of the $125 million worth of weapons pledges includes additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, air defenses, munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems 105 and 155-millimeter artillery, TOW anti-tank weapons, Claymore anti-personnel mines, small arms, and a dozen trucks. Those weapons pledges are made possible by utilizing Presidential Drawdown Authority which authorizes Biden to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval during an emergency. The material will come from excess U.S. inventory. Since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the U.S. has sent about $44 billion worth of security assistance to Ukraine.
Thursday, November 2nd (Day )
Biden says he will veto Israel funding bill if it doesn’t include funding for Ukraine.
On Thursday National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that President Biden would veto a House bill that includes only funding for Israel’s war against Hamas instead of a combination aid package that would also help Ukraine. The House bill, which was advanced, would provide $14.3 billion in aid for Israel, in exchange for cuts to the IRS. Last month, the White House proposed a $106 billion national security supplemental funding request that included money for both Israel and Ukraine.
Justice Department awards $334 million in grants to help local law enforcement agencies
On Thursday the Biden Administration announced it had awarded $334 million in grants to help local law enforcement agencies hire new officers and improve in areas such as crisis intervention and community policing. Some of the money will also help upgrade security at schools. The grants include nearly $217 million for hiring 1,730 entry-level officers at 394 agencies in 48 states through the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) hiring program. Nearly $74 million will go to school districts, state and local governments, and other public agencies to help improve security on school campuses. Finally, $43.6 million will support crisis intervention teams, de-escalation training, accreditation efforts, and innovative community policing strategies. While $43.6 million will go to more progressive Police training policies, the vast majority of this funding will simply go to hiring more Cops. As we have seen time and time again, more police officers do not make policing better, fundamental changes in policing culture do.
Tuesday, October 31st (Day )
United States to send 300 troops to the Middle East
On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced it would be sending 300 additional troops to the Middle East. Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder said that these troops will provide “capabilities in explosive ordnance disposal, communications, and other support” and that they are “intended to support regional deterrence efforts.” He also said that these troops would not be going to Israel. These 300 troops join 45,000 troops who are already stationed in the Middle East. According to the Pentagon, since the war between Hamas and Israel began, there have been 27 attacks against U.S. troops stationed in Syria and Iraq. As I’ve said before, the strategy of using troops as a deterrence in the Middle East has been tried and failed numerous times before, and there is no evidence this occasion will be any different.
Monday, October 30th (Day )
Biden Administration Proposes Narrowerer Student Debt Relief
On Monday, the Biden Administration unveiled its latest proposal for student debt relief. Under the new plan, relief will be targeted at select groups of borrowers, including those who have been paying for 25 years or longer or who owe far more than they originally borrowed. Under the plan, the Education Department also wants to provide relief to people who took out loans to attend career training programs that led to high debt loads or low earnings, and people who are eligible for, but have not applied for, other loan forgiveness programs. The department is also considering relief for a fifth group of borrowers: those who are experiencing financial hardship that is not addressed through existing loan programs. This is in stark contrast with Biden’s original student debt relief plan, which was struck down by the Supreme Court. The plan would have canceled $10,000 in student debt for all borrowers earning under $125,000 per year. The new proposal could take months to finalize. This proposal will likely anger both Conservatives and Progressives. Conservatives will not support any form of student debt relief, despite its popularity, and because of this, this proposal could also be fought in the Supreme Court. On the other hand, many Progressives were upset at Biden’s initial proposal, which did not go as far as President Biden promised on the campaign trail. This even narrower proposal, while not fully unveiled yet, will likely help far fewer people.
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